A looming third World War

By: Siddhartha Dua

One of the most destructive things in the world is an inflated human ego and what turns it into an apocalypse is its deadly cocktail with ultra-nationalism, it is the same problem which is plaguing the world right now.

A war was brought upon the entire humanity on February 24, 2022 by the  Russian President Vladimir Putin with  the sole ambition of making Russia Great again, restoring erstwhile glory of the USSR. Western Commentariat calls him the despot who in his own mind believed that Ukraine is a large part of Russian umpire and he believed that Ukrainian people will welcome Russian forces with open arms ditching the motley bunch of individuals who are sitting at the helm of Ukrainian Government. What emboldened his ambitions is what happened in Afghanistan and how President Ghani fled his nation once the Taliban started gaining control of Afghanistan. Putin beleived that Ukrainian President Zelensky will also flee Ukraine once war is declared.

President Vladimir Putin in his own mind built up an idea that Ukraine is getting too close to the west which imperils the security of the great Russian empire and he needed to teach a lesson to the bunch of thugs and  Neo Nazis who have mesmerized the Ukrainians by selling them this vague idea of utopian land and making Ukraine better than some of the western democracies of the world.

It started with the Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity, and initially focused on the status of Crimea and parts of the Donbas, internationally recognized as part of Ukraine. The first eight years of the conflict included the Russian annexation of Crimea (2014) and the war in Donbas (2014–present) between Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists, as well as naval incidents, cyberwarfare, and political tensions.

Following a Russian military build-up on the Russia–Ukraine border from late 2021, the conflict expanded significantly when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. In 2021 and early 2022, there was a major Russian military build-up around Ukraine’s borders. NATO accused Russia of planning an invasion, which it denied.

What gave Russia the impetus was the West’s aversions, especially that of the USA to condone Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its nefarious designs to capture more of the Ukrainian territory and ensuring that it stays away from NATO and does not become part of the European union.

This war has brought death and destruction to the people of both the countries, there is mass scale destruction and thousands of soldiers across the borders have lost their lives, many children have been rendered orphan and homeless, there is an acute refugee crisis which is looming large over the entire Europe. There is a huge influx of people across neighboring European countries and it puts a burden on the countries which were already reeling under the impact of Wuhan virus.

For developing countries like India which were just coming out of the third Covid wave this war couldn’t have come at a worse time, first of all it’s a diplomatic challenge, India has to walk a tightrope, India is a vibrant democracy and is duty bound to protect other democracies but India’s relation with Russia dates back many decades and Russia is also India’s largest arms suppliers. We import 49.4% of our weapons from Russia and are highly dependent upon them for spare parts and technology.

China which is known for its diplomatic cunningness is also supporting Russia and any wrong move on India’s part will push Russia to China’s lap and further dent India’s position.

India is sandwiched between a rock and hard place, there is a new found friendship with the USA, we import 49.4% of our defense requirements thru Russia and recently an order of $ 5.5 Billion was placed on Russia for procurement of S 400 anti missile system from Russia. President Biden has termed India’s response shaky as India abstained from voting against the Russian aggression in UN but west must also understand India’s sensibilities and India’s deep rooted ties with Russia.

Besides that, crude oil prices have also gone up over $ 100 and this significantly impacts India which imports 85% of its crude oil requirement and is the third largest oil importer as well. India imports over 220 MMT of crude oil to meet its requirement. India is also procuring cheap Russian oil to meet its requirement and it is ever increasing with the economy expected to grow over 9.5% in FY 22 and FY23.

Ukraine is also one of the biggest exporters of wheat and prices of wheat have gone through the roof because of supply constraints. Prices of wheat have also gone up from nearly $ 200 per ounce to $ 400 per ounce which has resulted in heavy losses to wheat importing nations. India which is one of the highest producers of Wheat can thus utilize this opportunity to export the wheat to such countries.

India’s wheat export share increased from 0.14% in 2016 to 0.54% in 2020. India produces around 107.59 million tons of wheat annually, of which a major chunk goes for domestic consumption. According to the commerce ministry, India’s wheat exports are mainly to neighboring countries, with Bangladesh having the largest share of more than 54% in both volume and value terms in 2020-21

Experts said several policy-related calls need to be made to facilitate wheat exports, and prolonged escalation in tension between Russia and Ukraine could mean that the net food-importing countries will be pushed to the wall. This, in turn, would make them look towards large producers of wheat such as India.

India is in final talks to start wheat export to Egypt while discussions are going on with countries like China, Turkey, China and Iran to begin the outbound shipments of the commodity, the commerce ministry said on Saturday. It said that India’s wheat exports increased to USD 1.74 billion during April-January 2021-22 as against USD 340.17 million in the same period last year.

India accounts for even less than 1 percent in world wheat export. However, its share has increased from 0.14 per cent in 2016 to 0.54 per cent in 2020. India is the second largest producer of wheat with a share of around 14.14 per cent of world total production in 2020.

Then there is something to learn as well that we need to be internally strong and how important Nuclear weapons are for us and as we have two enemy nations with our border state we need to maintain a good arsenal to ward off the enemy.

There are lessons for the entire world as well, we are not as safe as we believe and how one man if all powerful and with hyper nationalistic ambitions can wreak havoc to the entire world. The world that we live in is fragile and geo political tensions in one part of the world can affect the entire humanity.

West is not as strong as is seems to be and no nation howsoever strong can impinge its hegemonic ambitions on a smaller nation, Ukraine is strongly holding on to the battle turf and has inflicted significant damage to the Russians and and is continuing to fight for its independence.

Let us hope that this war does not turn into a world war and Russia and Ukraine come out with some middle ground on which peace pact between the two nations can be signed. Let us all hope it is not a temporary truce as the entire world knows how apocaylptic it can get.