Predicting India’s Medal Count at Asian Games 2018

Before the beginning of any multi sport event like Common wealth games, Asian Games or even Olympics there is a huge build up and sky high expectations are created. In modern times sports persons are like gladiators fighting it out for their countries in highly charged amphitheaters. At stake is a prized possession; winning medal for your country.
Our cricket obsessed media which is often accused of neglecting sports other than cricket also starts brandishing the famous gladiators from the sports of Wrestling, Boxing, shooting and other Olympic sports. Some go to the extent of predicting mind boggling figures on medal count. As a sports connoisseur and a sports lover who has followed multi sporting events with alacrity since the age of eight, I really find it odious when some of the outlandish numbers are dished out by sports commentators and so called experts some of whom have never covered anything beyond cricket.

Something similar happened before 2016 Rio Olympics as well when sports journalists from some media channels came out with an astounding figure of twelve medals for Indian contingent. Even by Indian media’s standards these figures were too good to be true. When all these predictions come a cropper our media people start questioning the attitude and commitment of our athletes. I often wonder why we do not adopt some scientific method to predict the medal count.

1990 Beijing Asian games were the first ones which I watched with immense interest, even though we were winning medals but Gold kept eluding us. Even Pakistan our nosy neighbor won four gold medals in those games and was placed well above India in rankings. That was the real low point in our sporting history, only saving grace was Kabaddi in which we won the Gold. Fortunately, kabaddi was introduced in 1990 and that is what saved us from the blushes. When other nations progressed in
80’s and 90’ our sports really came to nadir after 1980 the last time we won Hockey Gold in Olympics which was boycotted by many countries. In 1984, 1988 and 1992 we could not even win a single medal and always returned with a wooden spoon. Shackles were finally broken by Leander Paes who won the   bronze Medal in 1996 Olympic Games at Atlanta and became an instant celebrity. From then on to 2016 we have never come back empty handed from Olympics.

India’s graph has been rising steadily rising since 2000 and we started doing better in multisport events especially in CWG games. In 2002 we won sixty-nine medals including thirty golds. India has always been a force to reckon with in Common wealth games but our enthusiasm and performance fizzles out in Asian Games and as such our performance is never replicated in Olympics.

Based on the above data, I have prepared a scientific model to predict the medal count at Asian Games 2018. I am sticking my neck out and predicting the medals count for Asian Games. As a sports enthusiast and someone who has followed the games very closely I always find it intriguing if there is some relationships between medals won at different multi sporting events. Based on my knowledge and statistical tools, I have developed this model to predict the number of medals Indian contingent is likely to win at 2018 Asian Games.

Medals won at Common Wealth Games from 1990 to 2018

Table 1.0

There are two outliers in the above data, 2002 and 2010, I have closely analyzed these two outliers and following are the findings:

2002: In the year 2002 there were forty gold medals on offer in shooting in individual and pair events, also in Weightlifting again a sport which has given us bagful of medals there were separate medals for individual categories like separate medals for clean and jerk, snatch and another one for total. I have adjusted the medal tally based on the events held in 2018 CWG games and corresponding figure works out to be 43 medals.

2010:  In this year Common Wealth games were hosted in New Delhi besides the home advantage some of the events especially in shooting and wrestling were added to given the competitive edge to Indian sports persons and the results were heartening for us. I have rationalized that as well and come with the revised medals tally as per the table below.

Table 1.1

Assumptions of the model:

1. There is a linear correlation between the number of medals won at CWG and those won at Asian Games.
2. Medals won at CWG is independent variable and medals won at Asian Games is dependent variable.
3. Confidence level is 95%

Model for prediction of Medals at 2018 Asian Games

Inference from the above model: It can be seen that value of R is 0.91, which shows that there is 91% correlation between the number of medals won at CWG and the number of medals won at Asian Games. The predictability of the model can be judged from the value of R Square and value of R square is 0.8431, which can explain 84% of the variation. Balance 16% depends on other factors.

Based on the above model it can be predicted that number of medals India is going to win is 62.

Model for prediction of Golds at 2018 Asian Games

Inference from the above model: It can be seen that value of R is 0.907, hence there is 90% correlation between the number of medals won at Asian Games and the number of Golds won at Asian Games. The predictability of the model can be judged from the value of R Square and value of R square is 0.822, which can explain 82% variability of medals. Balance 18% depends on other factors.

Based on the above model it can be predicted that number of medals India is going to win is Thirteen. However as Indian athletes have performed above their potential in CWG. Likely Gold medal count can be 14.

Based on the above data, I am predicting Indian contingent is going to come back with 62 medals including 14 Golds.